Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
We analyze the causes of apparent bias toward optimism in growth forecasts underpinning design IMF-supported programs, which has been documented literature. find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors forecast errors. The greater expansion credit-to-GDP gap years preceding a forecast, its over-optimism about over next two years. This result is strongest among were most optimistic, where errors also increasing economy’s degree liability dollarization. inefficient use information applies more broadly, including IMF’s World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional compiled Consensus Economics. conclude improved macrofinancial analysis represents promising avenue for reducing forecasts.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: IMF Economic Review
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2041-4161', '2041-417X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-022-00187-3